Patents contain much significant technical information which can serve as an indicator of technological and economical development.
This study attempts to forecast the development of the biped robot walking technique in Japan by use of the patent data obtained
from the Japan Patent Office. The study applies linear regression to the patent data using three S-curve models developed
by Loglet Lab, Pearl, and Gompertz individually. Various parameters inherent to each model including the least sum of modulus
error and the least mean of square error of the model are analyzed. The most appropriate model for measuring the inflection
point, the growth and the saturation time of the technique is described. Based on the Gompertz model analysis, this study
finds that the biped robot walking technique will continue to develop for several decades in Japan and the saturation period
is estimated to be around the year 2079–2082. This finding can help related researchers and managers in the robot field to
foresee the development trend of the biped robot walking technique in this century.
This study investigates the characteristics of the process of the Internet's diffusion in Hungary. The theoretical frame of our research is based on Everett M. Rogers' diffusion theory enabling us to examine the penetration flow of new technology. In the first part of our paper we outlined the conclusion based on our findings that the Internet users in Hungary - based on their socio-economic and attitudinal characteristics - can still be considered to belong to the so-called early adopters. This means that the Internet's diffusion in Hungary in 2002, has not reached yet the phase of the “qualitative leap”, the sudden rise in the S-curve. In the second part of our study we describe the characteristics of the Internet as perceived by Hungarian users. We conclude that the Internet's compatibility is limited in respect of the existing knowledge and demands of the potential users, and its relative advantage is still ambiguous for the majority of the potential users.
Authors:Ling-Chu Lee, Yi-Yang Lee, and Yi-Ching Liaw
technology development: S-curve
It is the crucial task for many countries to select potential development technology among many new technologies (Smith and Marinova 2005 ). Many researchers apply the concept of S-Curve to describe the stage of
This paper reports part of a historical study of insecticide development. We analysed accumulated references to specific insecticide groups in text books, and index references to a large number of specific insecticides in theReview of Applied Entomology (Ser. A) over the period 1916–70. The paper describes our techniques for analysing the resulting research publication growth curves for these compounds. Our data did not fit the classical S-curves, and possible explanations for this are discussed. Bibliometric time series data may exhibit various inconsistencies, and we describe an approach to handling such dirty data. We concluded that; our quantitative approach produces a picture of the development of insecticides that fits the accepted view derived by qualitative historiography, is very sensitive to trends in pesticide research, and might be a useful adjunct to technology forecasting as well as to historical studies.
Authors:Y.P. Jing, D.T. Liu, X.R. Yu, F. Xiong, D.L. Li, Y.K. Zheng, Y.F. Hao, Y.J. Gu, and Z. Wang
The objective of the present study was to understand the developmental regularity of wheat endosperm cells at different Days After Pollination (DAP) using microscopic and histochemical methods. Resin semi-thin sections of the endosperm and the enzymatically dissociated Starchy Endosperm Cells (SECs) were observed under a light microscope. The results showed that: (1) SECs were irregular-shaped and had two types of starch granules: large oval-shaped A-type starch granules and small spherical B-type starch granules. (2) The growth shape of SECs was referred to as S-curve and the fastest cell growth period was at 16–24 DAP. (3) The largest increase and growth of A-type starch granules were mainly at 4–16 DAP. B-type starch granules increased rapidly after 16 DAP and made up over 90% of the total starch granules in SEC during the late stage of endosperm development. (4) The nuclei of SEC deformed and degenerated during the middle and late stages of endosperm development and eventually disappeared. However, starch granules still increased and grew after the cell nuclei had degenerated. The investigations showed the development regularity of starch endosperm cells and starch granules, thereby improving the understanding of wheat endosperm development.
In order to expand the
experimental data set of models describing the movement of organic liquids
polluting the soils, a series of experiments was set up in which the fluid
aturation curves of the soils) were measured using
water and NAPL (DUNASOL 180/220, a non aromatic petroleum product).
Measurements were carried out on undisturbed soil samples originating from 35
different horizons of 12 characteristic Hungarian soils. The P-S curves with
NAPL were determined in series, by a modified pressure cell apparatus -
designed and constructed in the laboratory of our department - containing
oil-resistant (silicon rubber, Teflon) components. The applied methodology and the statistical
analysis of the measured data are presented. The results show that the commonly
used Leverett-type scaling of the water retention data provides inadequate
estimation of the NAPL retention in some cases. This deviation may be a direct
result of changes in clay volume and soil aggregation when saturation with
different fluids was performed.
According to the analysis, however, with the easily measurable soil
parameters (bulk density, particle size distribution and humus content) a
better estimation of NAPL retention can be given. This estimation method (after
extending the database) can be useful for modelling the fate and migration of
NAPL or mapping the organic contaminant sensitivity of the soils.
The logistical function has been known and used by scientist more than hundred years for mathematical description of progresses. Different diffusion processes, such as the spread of contagious diseases or innovations show logistical growth as well. On basis of these, we targeted to reveal the signs of logistical growth on some specific area of the daily newspapers. For this purpose first we have chosen the recently most spectacular and well-defined public discussions in Hungary. We examined how the press reacted to the announcement made at Christmas in 2003 in the radio channel called “Radio Tilos”, where one of participant declared that he “would liquidate all Christians”. The evolution in time of the number of articles published reminds us strongly of to typical S curve of the logistic growth. It turned out that publishing occurred in several waves, mainly in three well-differentiated categories. We try to apply the logistic function on these categories. By using the logistic fit we could measure the state of emergency in the daily press.