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Bradley, J. — Untiedt, G. (2007): Do economic models tell us anything useful about Cohesion Policy Impacts? Mimeo. EC (2006a): Allocation of 2005 EU Expenditure by Member State . Various issues. European Commission

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on models they all take the metatheoretical perspective: apparatus of the philosophy of science is used to illuminate some theoretical issues in economic modelling. However, as it is common in philosophy, no agreement has been reached as to merits and

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Abstract  

Scientific productivity is constant as a scientist ages according to recent studies relying mainly on quantity measures of productivity. An economic model of the life-cycle productivity of scientists is presented which implies that the number of citations made to a scientist's previous work will decline with age. The implication could be consistent with the finding of constant quantity output with age if the decline in quality (as measured by number of citations per article) is large enough.

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Anti-Equilibrium (1971) was well ahead of its time in emphasising that (i) economics should draw from biology, rather than physics, as its methodological underpinning; (ii) evolutionary logic requires a different type of decision-making in simple, routine matters, as opposed to large and important decisions; (iii) the most important production processes are non-linear, with increasing returns to scale being the rule, rather than the exception in modern capitalist economies and — in conclusion — that there is no such thing as general equilibrium. In modern societies, goods and services are either in shortage (Socialism) or in a state of oversupply (Capitalism). It is either a buyers’ market or sellers’ market.

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Abstract

Trade analysis for open economies is strategically important. Even though Hungarian trade relations are oriented towards the EU, the direct and indirect influence of Asia, mainly China, needs special attention. The paper focuses on direct bilateral relations between Hungary and China. The global value chain perspective enables the research to detect inter- and intra-industry dependencies and unfold and compare the industry focuses and dynamics of backward and forward linkages between 2000 and 2018. We used a mixed methodology, combining input-output analysis with company case studies based on a wide range of literature both from Chinese and East-Central European researchers. The findings support the significance of global value chain relations, highlight the restructuring of Hungarian trade relations with China over the past twenty years, and indicate the strong concentration of relations in terms of the number of companies.

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Abstract

This paper investigates Hungary's inflationary exposures to global price movements using a simple cost-push input-output price model and a database of inflation-to-output price elasticities (Global Inflation-to-Output Price Elasticity Database, GIOPED) developed on the basis of the OECD's Inter-Country Input-Output Tables. Inflation elasticities are decomposed into local, simple, and complex global value chain effects by applying Wang's decomposition scheme (Wang et al. 2017) to price movements and inflation. Our empirical analysis based on GIOPED elasticities shows that Hungary is highly exposed to global value chain price transmissions originating in Germany, Austria, and Russia; and in particular to changes in energy prices. The crude oil and natural gas price boom and the resulting energy crises caused a significant increase in consumer price levels in Hungary; however, this explains only a fraction of current inflation rates.

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Abstract

Central and Eastern European countries, including Czechia and Hungary, have become parts of the integrated periphery in the automotive industry. Through input-output analysis, company data and interviews, the article reveals the determining role of the industry in both economies and their deep integration in global value chains (GVCs). In addition to these similarities, the analysis reveals that domestic, simple and complex global value chain performances, ownership structures, the scale and types of upgrading tendencies as well as the consequences of the appearance of newcomers in the industry show different patterns of GVC structures over time. Due to these, the development paths of the two countries widely differ.

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), the bricklaying brigade, and the bakery. It operates a dividend system similar to the one in Mezőfény, but because of the separate economic model, it pays less, and for years it has paid nothing on shares. The separate economic model has to do with

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This paper addresses the hottest potato of economics today, namely why the profession seems to have been lulled into a sense of false security in spite of flourishing economic models as well as subfield-knowledge in various disciplines? The embarrassing question of the Queen of England ‘why did nobody see the crisis of 2008 coming’ emblematically signalled the failure of the collective imagination of the entire profession to understand the system and its emerging patterns. The present paper can be seen therefore as a clarion call for grounding a shift towards an economics barded with the lessons learnt in complexity science in shaping modern governance.

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The catching-up of the banking sector in South-Eastern Europe

A fragile development model dominated by credit growth

Society and Economy
Author:
Eszter Kazinczy

The paper reviews the commercial banking sector’s development during the booming years before the current global crisis in Southeast Europe. Based on the analysis of a comprehensive dataset, a common, simplified economic model could be outlined for this period, where GDP growth has been fuelled by rapid credit growth. The latter was boosted both by foreign funding and swift deposit growth volumes. Nevertheless, beside the favourable catch-up process, the level of external imbalances, credit growth and currency mismatches raised sustainability concerns and the risk of overheating.

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