adósságállományról. Az elmulasztott lehetőségekről és az adósság reálértékének alakulásáról
[Thoughts on ExternalDebt. Missed Chances and the Real Value of Debt]. Unpublished manuscript.
Iwasaki, Ichiro (2005): Foreign Direct
múltjáról, jelenéről és jövőjéről
(Debt — Studies on the Past, Present and Future of Our ExternalDebt). Budapest: Szakszervezetek Gazdaság-és Társadalomkutató Intézete (Economic and Social Research Institute of Labour Unions
Looking back to the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, Hungary was among the first countries to be forced to make use of financial assistance from the EU and the IMF. The government, the MNB (the central bank of Hungary) as well as the domestic and foreign analysts cited the high public debt and the volume of unsecured foreign-currency loans as the main reasons for the crises. Though these were real weaknesses, this diagnosis was false as much as the following treatment. First and foremost, it was the inadequate level of foreign exchange reserves that made Hungary to request outside financial assistance.
The excessive fiscal tightening urged by the MNB only led to deepening of the crises. In general, the macropolicy – both fiscal and monetary policy – before, during and after the crises turned out to be painfully pro-cyclical. Due to the lack of sufficient reserves, the MNB became virtually powerless to intervene and could only watch from the side-lines as events unfolded. The orthodox mind-set after replenishing the forex reserves prevented it from implementing a broad scale of unconventional measures to ease the crises. The fiscal authority lost its capacity long before to reduce the severity of the crises. Thus, the excessive and incorrect structure of fiscal correction coupled with an unjustified orthodox monetary policy, the contraction of the Hungarian economy went much beyond the inevitable amount.
In the present article the author examines how to develop economic and monetary policy in order to efficiently apply inflation targeting. In Hungary, an inflation targeting system has been applied since 2001. As a result of the current monetary policy, consumer price level must regularly be kept stable at least in a mid-term approach in the middle but possibly also in the long run, or else it should be rising slowly, two per cent per year, at the most. Should the monetary authority have to deal with an already existing fast inflation rate, a considerable reduction of the rate of inflation must be aimed at year by year. Once monetary policy succeeds in bringing down inflation, the low rate achieved must permanently be secured. However, it is not sure that monetary policy has to prefer inflation targeting under any circumstances whatsoever.This policy has a favourable effect only if two substantial preconditions are given: public finances are near the equilibrium and nominal wages are regularly adjusted to the growth rate of GDP. Otherwise, inflation targeting may also have harmful effects such as excessive overvaluation of the national currency, excess of domestic use over GNP, increase of domestic and external debt, decreasing trend of the savings and investment rate, lower economic growth potential.
Externaldebt accumulation has been a common characteristic of developing countries at the early stage of economic development since the 1970s externaldebt crises ( Pattillo et al. 2002 ). The externaldebt burden in most sub
( 2003 ): Analiza održivosti javnog i vanjskog duga Hrvatske pomoću standardnih financijskih pokazatelja (Analysis of Public and ExternalDebt Sustainability for Croatia: Application of Standard Financial Indicators) . Privredna
impact on the sustainability of the national economy during the periods before and after accession to the EU and pointed out excessive levels of the externaldebt and critical debt-to-GDP ratio in Romania. Zaman – Georgescu (2015) highlighted that the