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This paper examines the impact of medium- and short-term financial constraints on the probability of export participation of SMEs in 28 post-communist countries. The regression analysis conducted over the cross-sectional sample of SMEs taken from the BEEPS III-IV-V shows that the medium- and short-term financial constraints produce a significantly negative effect on the probability of exporting. Although there exist arguments for why the effects of medium- and short-term financial constraints can differ from each other, both the medium- and short-term financial constraints appear to reduce the probability of exporting equally by 25%. The regression results also suggest that more productive, innovative, and larger SMEs, and also SMEs with international quality certificates are more likely to export. When the regressions are separately estimated for the first-time and continuous exporters, it appears that only the probability of exporting of continuous exporters is significantly sensitive to the financial constraints. Furthermore, the regressions separately run for the direct and indirect exporters show that the financial constraints have a larger effect on the probability of exporting of indirect exporters. The heterogeneity analysis shows that there is a significant heterogeneity in the effects of medium- and short-term financial constraints on the likelihood of exporting across regions, industries, periods, and firm types.

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The value or informativeness of an item in a library collection or database has been measured by its frequency of circulation or access. This paper presents a more discriminating measure, user contact time, and develops a model for its distribution over users and over time. The model is applied to the problem of predicting future informativeness of an item.

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Investigated is the relationship between the level of geomagnetic activity and the GPS TEC relative deviations from the monthly medians. Detailed information on this dependence is of crucial importance for developing a new synthetic index which, by quantifying the local response of TEC to geomagnetic activity, will be able to improve the quality of autocorrelation forecast procedures.</o:p>

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Bibliometric data on psychology publications from 1977 through 2008 are modeled and forecasted for the 10 years following 2008. Data refer to the raw frequencies of the PsycINFO (94% English-language, mainly Anglo-American publications) and the English-language documents of PSYNDEX (publications from the German-speaking countries). The series were modelled by way of exponential smoothing. In contrast to Single Moving Average methods which do not weigh observations, exponential smoothing assigns differential weights to observations. Weights reflect the distance from the most recent data point. Results suggest strongly expanding publication activities which can be represented by exponential functions. In addition, forecasted publication activities, estimated based on psychology publication frequencies in the past, show positive bibliometric trends in the Anglo-American research community. These trends go in parallel the bibliometric trends for the English-language publications of German-speaking authors. However, while positive trends were forecasted for all psychological subdisciplines of the Anglo-American publication database PsycINFO, negative bibliometric trends were estimated for English-language publications from German-speaking authors in 6 out of 20 subdisciplines.

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. Public Finances in EMU 2009 Favero, C.A. — Maecellino, M. (2005): Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro

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. Boda , Gy. – Révész T. ( 1990 ): Analysis of Changes in Hungary’s Energy Demand . Presentation at the XIII. International Conference on Problems of Model Building and Forecasting in Economics, Models and Forecasts. 5–7 September 1990, Berlin

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Klaus, V. (1984): Some Reflections on Kornai’s Macroeconomic Model. Paper presented to the conference “Models and Forecasts 84” organized by the Institute of Econometrics and Statistics of the University of Lodz, Lodz, Poland

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.C. , Martínez , M.I. , Sepulcri , M.G. 2013 . Modeling and forecasting systems for Fusarium head blight and deoxynivalenol content in wheat in Argentina . In: Alconada Magliano , T.M. , Chulze, S.N. (eds), Fusarium Head Blight in Latin

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J , Saithanu K : Modeling and forecasting the dengue hemorrhagic fever cases in Trat, Thailand . Global J Pure Appl Math 11 , 837 – 841 ( 2015

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): Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Methods . Annals of Actuarial Science , 3 ( 1–2 ): 3 – 43 . Booth , H. – Maindonald , J. H. – Smith , L. ( 2001 ): Age-Time Interactions in Mortality Projection: Applying Lee-Carter to Australia

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