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1 Introduction Stochastic forecasting of mortality reached its golden age in recent decades. The revolution of IT infrastructure—together with increasing quantity and quality of relevant databases—has provided exceptional potential to improving

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. 2003 284 F455 F466 Krinsley, J. S.: Association between hpyerglycemia and increased hospital mortality in

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study demonstrated that female gender was indeed a weak but independent risk factor for attempting suicide when controlling for depression ( Bischof et al., 2015 ). In addition, and compared to the extensive literature of mortality on substance

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Physiology International
Authors:
Enikő Kovács
,
Nicolò Maimeri
,
Filippo Orlando
,
Federica Morselli
,
Ottavia Pallanch
,
Monica Fedrizzi
,
János Gál
, and
Andrea Székely

care unit (ICU) stay and is associated with higher mortality [ 1–4 ]. Liver failure can be a consequence or even a cause of multi-organ failure (MOF) and critical illness. The incidence of any type of liver failure in the ICU is at least 20

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Physiology International
Authors:
Anna Péterfi
,
Ágota Mészáros
,
Zsófia Szarvas
,
Melinda Pénzes
,
Mónika Fekete
,
Ágnes Fehér
,
Andrea Lehoczki
,
Tamás Csípő
, and
Vince Fazekas-Pongor

with the presence of certain comorbidities [ 1 , 3–15 ]. Advanced age is often associated with a more serious manifestation of COVID-19, including higher mortality rates [ 16 , 17 ]. Compared to the 5–17-year-old population, those between ages 65 and

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, D. M., Deaton, A. S., Lleras-Muney, A.: The Determinants of Mortality. NBER Working Paper No. W11963, 2006. Internet: SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=877468 Starfield, B.: Pathways of

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Orvosi Hetilap
Authors:
Márta Bakacs
,
József Vitrai
,
Zoltán Várhalmi
,
Csilla Kaposvári
,
Dóra Hermann
,
Sándor Kabos
, and
András Löv

Ocana-Riola, R., Saurina, C., Fernandez-Ajuria, A. és mtsai: Area deprivation and mortality in the provincial capital cities of Andalusia and Catalonia (Spain). J. Epidemiol. Commun. Health, 2008, 62 , 147

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Goldcare, M. J., Roberts, S. E., Yeates, D.: Mortality after admission to hospital with fractured neck of femur: database study. BMJ, 2002, 325 , 868

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A modified version of the popular Lee-Carter method (Lee-Carter 1992) is applied to forecast mortality rates in Hungary for the period 2004–2040 on the basis of mortality data between 1949 and 2003 both for men and women. Another case is also considered based on a restricted data set corresponding to the period 1989–2003. The model fitted to the data of the period 1949–2003 forecasts increasing mortality rates for men between ages 45 and 55, pointing out that the Lee-Carter method is hardly applicable for countries where mortality rates exhibit trends as peculiar as in Hungary. However, models fitted to the data for the last 15 years both for men and women forecast decreasing trends similarly to the case of countries where the method was successfully applied. Hence one gets a better fit in this way, however, further concerns suggest that the Lee-Carter model, which is celebrated and widely used in actuarial practice, does not necessarily give sufficiently good prediction.

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important to forecast the long-term mortality rate. However, these are hard to produce and validate mortality rates, since annual mortality rate recording does not have a long history. Assessing Hungarian mortality rates are especially difficult, because

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