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Cuite, C.L., Aquino, H.L. & Hallman, W.K. (2005): An empirical investigation of the role of knowledge in public opinion about GM food. Int. J. Biotechnol. , 7 (1/2/3), 178–194. Hallman W

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The study below examines the spectacular failure of four Hungarian public opinion pollsters to predict prior to the first round of the results of the 2002 general elections, and the causes of this failure. It reviews the types of voting behavior manifesting themselves during the polls and the elections, and analyzes the criteria of accurate prediction. Based on the results of public opinion pollsters it summarizes the observations made during the data surveys prior to the first round of the 2002 elections, and the explanations given by researchers for their failure. Then it tries to explain the reasons for the wrong predictions of pollsters. Besides a change in party support after surveys (late swing) it emphasizes the role of the three collective false beliefs: the misconception of voters' attitudes towards Fidesz; the acceptance and interpretation as realistic (giving an accurate picture of the real trends) of the results of pollsters; and the voters' wrong assumption concerning the final result of the elections. The study also describes how these effects manifested themselves.

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Quantitative measurement of public opinions on new technologies

An application of SEM-methodology to the analysis of beliefs and values toward new human applications of genetic engineering

Scientometrics
Author: D. Urban

Abstract  

The article presents the methodology of structural equation modeling (SEM) to study social perceptions of new technologies. It argues that the SEM-methodology offers a better statistical approach for the analysis of technology-related attitudes than the techniques most often applied in the field of public opinion research. SEM eliminates, compensates for, or at least reduces many problems raised by common surveying practices researching attitudes on new technologies. In particular, SEM-methodology reduces difficulties of testing the validity and reliability of measuring instruments when those are applied to vague and weakly established opinions on new technologies. To demonstrate these advantages of SEM the research presented here concentrates on the cognitive formation of public attitudes toward the particular gene technologies of prenatal genetic testing (pGT) and prenatal genetic engineering (pGE). The study explores whether a statistical analysis of various opinions on these technologies can reveal a set of underlying, structured attitudes, and if so, whether these attitudes form an entire syndrome or are differentiated into several distinct, coherent complexes.

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The dialect lexical representations of notions from the “public opinion” sphere are the subject of the research. The motivational analysis of such words allowed to reveal the key meanings “showing the attitude to the person”, “assessment”, “influence on the person”, and “the person’s image”. The native Russian speaker bases on them the choice of the motivational feature for the words that represent the lexical-semantic field “public opinion”.

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& Salmon, 1995 ; Lewis, 2001 ; Rothstein & Finnigan, 2015 ). As it provides narrative and guides interpretation ( Cohen & Weimann, 2000 ), public opinion is heavily influenced by the images and messages transmitted through popular media ( Kruger & Wall

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Allport , F. H. (1937) Toward a science of public opinion. The Public Opinion Quarterly, 1, 7–23. Farr , R. M. (1996) The roots of modern social psychology

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Scientific observers as well politicians have noted for a long time that European integration is a process led by the elites but supported much less enthusiastically by the public at large. The first part of this paper documents systematically and for the first time how pervasive the split between elites and citizens has become over the last decades; the rejection of the “Constitution for Europe” by clear majorities of the French and Dutch voters in 2005 was only the last and most spectacular event in this regard. The paper proposes two theses which help to explain this split: (1) European integration has brought and still brings many advantages to the powerful elites involved, the political, economic and new “Eurocratic” elites; (2) for the population at large, the gains from integration are much less obvious; significant subsections of the populations in different EU member countries have been affected negatively by integration. These theses are documented by empirical evidence from many different sources: Data about the origins, careers and privileges of European politicians and bureaucrats; historical and contemporary data about the role of economic interests and the successful strategies of economic elites concerning integration; statistical data about the socioeconomic development of the EU and “Euroland” compared to other large advanced countries and macro-regions of the world; and survey data about the perceptions and evaluations of European integration both among the elites and the populations in the different member states.

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there is an anti-deflationary bias and a tendency towards an inflationary world. 2 Deflation theories, the government and public opinion Theories influence the ideas that people have. If people hold the idea that something is bad for them, they will

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Az Európai Unió egyes országaiban a nemzetközi fejlesztési együttműködés gyakran közbeszéd témája. Ettől Magyarország még távol áll, hiszen jelenleg a társadalom igen kevéssé tájékozott a nemzetközi fejlesztés kérdéseiben. A cikk egy olyan mélyinterjús vizsgálat eredményeit mutatja be, amely a nemzetközi fejlesztési kérdések iránti tájékozottság és támogatottság feltárására irányult. Az eredmények azt mutatják, hogy Magyarországon nem csupán a szélesebb közvélemény, de az elitek számára is sok tekintetben homályos az ország nemzetközi fejlesztési együttműködésben és segélyezésben betöltött szerepe. Számos hazai sajátosság mellett a tájékozottság hiányából is ered az alacsony társadalmi tudatosság és támogatottság a nemzetközi fejlesztés területén.A kutatás további eredménye, hogy míg a döntéshozók a fejlesztési együttműködést a külpolitika részeként alapvetően érdekalapú indítékokkal magyarázzák, az állampolgárok attitűdjét elsősorban morális motivációk határozzák meg. A cikk következtetése, hogy társadalmi támogatottság nélkül a fejlesztési együttműködés a legitimitás hiányának és belpolitikai viszályoknak van kitéve. Mivel az állampolgárok és a döntéshozók szintjén eltérő motivációk érvényesülnek, fontos, hogy a két csoport megértse egymás indítékait, hiszen a témakörben megfelelően tájékozott és tudatos társadalom csak így képes napirenden tartani a nemzetközi fejlesztés kérdéseit.

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A KSH által 1999–2000-ben lebonyolított időmérleg-felvétel adatbázisa jó lehetőséget nyújt a társadalom mindennapjainak vizsgálatára. A felvétel almintájaként lekérdezett szubjektív kérdőív anyaga alapján lehetőség van a megkérdezettek értékorientációjának, a napi élet szféráival kapcsolatos at_c

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