Authors:I. Paskaleva, G. F. Panza, F. Vaccari, and P. Ivanov
The capital of Bulgaria, Sofia is a growing city with population around 1.22 million. The city is exposed to a high seismic risk since it is placed in the centre of Sofia seismic area. Over the centuries in the town of Sofia the macroseismic intensities have been larger than IX (MSK). A study of the site effects and the microzonation of a part of metropolitan Sofia, based on a modelling of seismic ground motion along three cross sections are presented. Realistic synthetic strong motion waveforms have been computed for an expected scenario earthquake (M=7) applying a hybrid modelling method, based on the modal summation technique and finite differences scheme. The site amplification is determined in terms of response spectra ratio (RSR). A set of time histories and quantities of earthquake engineering interest are supplied, that allow the definition of six zones characterized by specific response spectra. The results from this study constitute a “database” that describes the ground shaking of the urban area. The synthetic velocigrams are employed to calculate the distribution of the horizontal strain factor Log10e using a simplified relation between particle velocity and velocity of shear waves in the surface layer. It is shown that it is possible to estimate liquefaction susceptibility in terms of standard penetration tests (SPT), Nvalues and initial over burden stress. Using the data for maximum particle velocity and empirical relationships developed from the Northridge earthquake, 1994 the distributions of the expected pipe breaks and red-tagged buildings for Sofia city are shown.
In this article, stochastic finite-fault simulation combined with site response analysis is used to understand the spatial distribution of ground motion in Guwahati city due to three damaging earthquakes. The rock level ground motion for the scenario earthquakes is generated based on the stochastic finite-fault methodology. These simulated motions are further amplified up to the surface by equivalent linear site response analyses using the available borelog data at 100 different locations in Guwahati city. A set of twenty simulated rock level time histories for each event, are used to compute the surface level ground motion. Response spectra are computed and the results are presented in the form of contour maps, at selected natural periods. The mean amplification due to local soil deposit is as high as 2.2 at most of the sites in Guwahati city. Based on these simulated motions, an average site correction factor is obtained for soil sites in Guwahati city. The standard error in the simulated response spectra is also reported. The contour maps obtained will be useful in identifying vulnerable places in Guwahati city.
Authors:F. Mata Cabrera, J. Tejero Manzanares, I. Hanafi, A. B. Arenas, I. Garrido, V. Toledano, and M. L. Rubio
Mechanical properties of ductile materials are very sensitive to environmental conditions in particular temperature. The paper shows the results obtained in the simultaneous testing of 5182 H111 Aluminium alloy, S275JR Carbon Steel and F114 Carbon Steel specimens using conventional methods and thermography. The infrared thermography was used to quantify deformation localization zones, also to relate the temperature changes of the specimens, continuously recorded by thermography, with the load extension diagram. It enables to predict reaching the critical stresses which cause the appearance of fractures and to define the criteria for determining the maximum sample temperature alteration in the field of elastic and elastic-plastic strains. Infrared thermography was found to be an efficient tool for investigating the deformation and damage scenario under tensile loading.
Authors:Annika Tovedal, Ulrika Nygren, and Henrik Ramebäck
Early determination of 89Sr and 90Sr in radiological emergency is hampered by the presence of interfering short-lived fission products. In this study, three
commonly used radioanalytical strategies for 89Sr and 90Sr were evaluated theoretically considering their suitability in a nuclear explosion scenario. The methods were evaluated
with respect to the need for decay time of interfering short-lived strontium and yttrium isotopes, and reduction of other
known interfering nuclides prior to measurement. The strategy shown to be most successful included initial separation of strontium
and determination of 89Sr, followed by an yttrium separation and counting of 90Y. 89Sr and 90Sr could be determined about 5 and 9 days after a nuclear explosion, respectively.
In this paper attempt has been made to unfold the intellectual base in ocean science and technology. The articles appeared in Science Citation Index (SCI) under Oceanography in the year 2000 were analyzed to decipher the scientist to scientist, organization to organization and country to country network structures. The causal linkages between the knowledge productivity function and the socio-economic imperatives of knowledge production units were studied.
Authors:S. Ongaro, S. Martellos, G. Bacaro, A. De Agostini, A. Cogoni, and P. Cortis
The Mediterranean is one of the major biodiversity hotspots of the world. It has been identified as the “core” of the speciation process for many groups of organisms. It hosts an impressive number of species, many of which are classified as endangered taxa. Climate change in such a diverse context could heavily influence community composition, reducing ecosystems resistance and resilience. This study aims at depicting the distribution of nine orchid species in the island of Sardinia (Italy), and at forecasting their future distribution in consequence of climate change. The models were produced by following an “ensemble” approach. We analysed present and future (2070) niche for the nine species, using Land Use and Soil Type, as well as 8 bioclimatic variables as predictors, selected because of their influence on the fitness of these orchids. Climate change in the next years, at Mediterranean latitudes, is predicted to results mainly in an increase of temperature and a decrease of precipitation. In 2070, the general trend for almost all modelled taxa is the widening of the suitable areas. However, not always the newly gained areas have high probability of presence. A correct interpretation of environmental changes is needed for developing effective conservation strategies.
The paper presents how the Committee on Futures Research, within Section IX. of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS), sees the possible futures for Hungary for the year 2025, based on the expertise of Hungarian futurists and social scientists, including the opinions of younger generations. It offers insight to Hungarian society in 18 years from 2007, when the research began. In cooperation with experts coming from diverse scientific backgrounds and with those who feel responsibility for the future and are willing to act upon it, we need to continue discovering our horizon albeit in a different way and to embark on new roads. In summary, we need to change the HOW and the WHAT.
Ensuing a previous study of Brazilian sciences production for the period 1981–95, health sciences were taken apart for scrutiny.
ISI data was obtained in an aggregate format comprising 40 health research fields recording their yearly number of papers,
proportion out of the country, proportion out of the field, and impact relative to field.
Simple linear regression was used to examine time trends in production and impact of research fields. A complementary variable
representing growth trend was computed as the regression slope. Data were then analysed by means of Factor and Correspondence
Analysis. Results allowed the production of location maps of research fields so that hierarchy and relationships among them
could be examined in the form of geometric distances.
It was found that health sciences represent 42% of the Brazilian scientific production and that their trends in both production
and impact do not differ from other sciences taken altogether. Measurements of production were found negatively correlated
with impact and factor analysis revealed that the major distinction between fields is attributable to production (64% of measurement
variations against 19% due to impact). Experimental Biology & Medicine largely exceeds other fields in production, though
at ordinary levels of impact. Correspondence analysis refined the study of impact allowing the identification of the best
performers as Clinical Immunology & Infectious Diseases, Environmental & Social Medicine, and Radiology & Nuclear Medicine.
The information provided can advise national policy makers on science & technology about priorities concerning the improvement
of the country's competitiveness.