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In the small seismic source zone of Kecskemét 203 earthquakes are known between 1739 and 2006, and about 90 percent of them have a magnitude value not more than 3.0, however the strongest event on July 8, 1911 has 5.6 surface-wave magnitude. Concerning the latter earthquake the maximum (epicentral) intensity I = VIII (EMS) was observed in the area enclosed by Kecskemét, Katonatelep and Hetényegyháza locations. The quake caused significant damage to buildings (I ≥ VI EMS) on about 6 thousands square kilometres and was felt (I ≥ III EMS) on some 85 thousands square kilometres. The focal depth is estimated as 11 km directly from the individual intensity data points. During the earthquake liquefaction (sand crater) occurred in the epicentral area and some electromagnetic effects were also observed. Studying the source dimensions we conclude the rupture area is between 40 and 67 square kilometres and the maximum displacement along the fault is estimated to 14–20 centimetres for the Kecskemét earthquake of July 8, 1911. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment predicts 1.1–1.5 m/s 2 peak ground accelerations, and 6.6–7.1 maximum (theoretical) earthquake intensity values with 10% chance of exceedance for an exposure time of 100 years in the studied area.

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The source parameters and dimensions of the three most important earthquakes (Komárom 1763, Io = IX EMS; Komárom 1783, Io = VII-VIII EMS; Mór 1810, Io = VIII EMS) of the area studied are estimated as follows     event                        focal depth   rupture area    max. displacement Jun. 28, 1763 Komárom   7.6 km     93 - 125 km2   29 - 35 cm Apr. 22, 1783 Komárom  11.5 km     18 -  36 km2   6 - 11 cm Jan. 14, 1810 Mór             5.0 km     18 -  45 km2   6 - 14 cm The average recurrence that we may expect an earthquake of M=2.7 every 1 year, an earthquake of M=4.0 every 10 years and an earthquake of M=5.3 every 100 years in this source zone. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment predicts 1.4-2.0 m/cm2 peak ground accelerations, and 6.9-7.2 maximum (theoretical) earthquake intensity values with 10% chance of exceedance for an exposure time of 100 years in the area.

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In the seismic source zone of Bánát more than 600 earthquakes are known since 1773 among them six events with magnitude of 5.0–5.7 measured on the surface magnitude scale. The macroseismic reinterpretation of the April 2, 1901 earthquake yields epicentral intensity of VII on the European Macroseismic Scale, and a focal depth value of 12 km. Based on empirical relations the maximum rupture area is estimated as 50–55 km 2 and the maximum displacement along the fault is about 16 cm in the Bánát seismic zone due to the M S = 5.7 event occurred on July 12, 1991. The average recurrence that we may expect an earthquake of M ≥ 3.4 every 1 year, an earthquake of M ≥ 4.3 every 10 years and an earthquake of M ≥ 5.3 every 100 years in the studied source zone. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment predicts 1.3–2.1 m/sec 2 peak ground accelerations, and 6.7–7.3 maximum (theoretical) earthquake intensity values with 10% chance of exceedance for an exposure time of 100 years in the region.

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The source parameters and dimensions of the three most important earthquakes (Zsolna - Jan. 15, 1858, I o = VIII EMS; Jóko - Jan. 9, 1906, I o = VIII EMS; Jóko- Jan. 16, 1906, I o = VII-VIII EMS) of the area studied are estimated as follows: Event (Magnitude, Rupture area, Max. Displacement); Jan. 15, 1858 Zsolna (5.5 Ms, 22-36 km2, 8-11 cm); Jan. 9, 1906 Jóko (5.7 MS, 40-55 km2, 12-16 cm); Jan. 16, 1906 Jóko (5.3 MS, 12-24 km2,4-8 cm). The average recurrence that we may expect an earthquake of M = 2.3 every 1 year, an earthquake of M = 3.7 every 10 years and an earthquake of M = 5.1 every 100 years in this source zone. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment predicts 1.2-1.7 m/sec2 peak ground accelerations, and 6.6-7.2 maximum (theoretical) earthquake intensity values with 10% chance of surpassing for an exposure time of 100 years in the area.

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Abstract  

A simple one-dimensional, axisymmetric model of a gas-pressure deformation calorimeter containing a lumped heat source accounts for observed pressure changes in terms of conductive and radiant components of heat transfer. Agreement is generally good between experimental data and the predicted calorimeter response for the range of source dimensions, heating rates, and test temperatures investigated in the study.

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The recent scientific advances in understanding the hierarchical nature of the lithosphere and its dynamics based on systematic monitoring and evidence of its space-energy similarity at global, regional, and local scales did result the design of reproducible intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction technique. The real-time experimental testing aimed at prediction of the largest earthquakes world-wide from 1992 to the present proved statistically a possibility of practical earthquake forecasting although of limited precision. In the first approximation, an accuracy of 1-5 years and 5-10 times the  anticipated source dimension is achieved. Further analysis of seismic dynamics allows reducing the spatial uncertainty down to 1-3 source dimensions, although at the cost of additional failures-to-predict. Despite of limited accuracy a considerable damage could be prevented by timely knowledgeable use of the existing predictions and earthquake prediction strategies. The link of theoretical research in modeling earthquake sequences in frames of statistical physics on the one hand and instrumental and algorithm developments on the other hand help developing a new generation of earthquake prediction technique of higher accuracy.

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