The study is made within the research programme of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, focused on post-COVID (No. 2021-25).
Autor, D. – Reynolds, E. (2020): The Nature of Work after the COVID Crisis: Too Few Low-Wage Jobs .Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.
Baker, S. R. – Bloom, N. – Davis, S. J. – Terry, S. J. (2020): COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty. NBER Working Paper, No. 26983, April.
Barro, R. J. – Ursúa, J. F. – Weng, J. (2020): The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the ‘Spanish Flu’ for the Coronavirus’ Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity. NBER Working Paper, No. 26866, March.
Battistini, N. – Stoevsky, G. (2021): The Impact of Containment Measures Across Sectors and Countries during the COVID-19 Pandemic. ECB Economic Bulletin, No. 2, March.
Becker, B. – Hege, U. – Mella-Barral, P. (2020): Corporate Debt Burdens Threaten Economic Recovery after COVID-19: Planning for Debt Restructuring Should Start Now. VoxEU, 21 March.
Bodnár, K. – Le Roux, J. – Lopez-Garcia, P. – Szörfi, B. (2020): The Impact of COVID-19 on Potential Output in the Euro Area. ECB Economic Bulletin, 7: 42–61.
Chernoff, A. – Warman, C. (2021): Down and Out: Pandemic-Induced Automation and Labour Market Disparities of COVID-19. VoxEU, 02 February.
Christensen, A. K. – Maravalle, A. – Rawdanowicz, L. (2020): The Increase in Bank Deposits During the COVID-19 Crisis: Possible Drivers and Implications. ECOSCOPE (OECD): December 10.
D'Auria, F. – Denis, C. – Havik, K. – Mc Morrow, K. – Planas, C. – Raciborski, R. – Röger, W. – Rossi, A. (2010): The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps. European Economy, Economic Papers, No. 420. July, Brussels.
- Search Google Scholar
- Export Citation
D'Auria, F. Denis, C. Havik, K. Mc Morrow, K. Planas, C. Raciborski, R. Röger, W. Rossi, A. 2010): The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps. European Economy, Economic Papers, No. 420. July Brussels.
Davenport, A. – Joyce, R. – Rasul, I. – Waters, T. (2020): Spending and Saving During the COVID-19 Crisis: Evidence from Bank Account Data. Institute for Fiscal Studies, IFS Briefing Note, No. 308, October.
Denis, C. – Grenouilleau, D. – McMorrow, K. – Röger, W. (2006): Calculating Potential Growth and Output Gaps – A Revised Production Function Approach. European Commission, DG EFA Economic Papers, No. 247.
Donadelli, M. – Ferranna, L. – Gufler, I. – Paradiso, A. (2021): Using Past Epidemics to Estimate the Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: A Bad Idea! Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 57, June, pp. 214–224.
- Search Google Scholar
- Export Citation
Donadelli, M. Ferranna, L. Gufler, I. Paradiso, A. 2021): Using Past Epidemics to Estimate the Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: A Bad Idea! Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 57, June, pp. 214– 224. 10.1016/j.strueco.2021.03.002
Dossche, M. – Zlatanos, S. (2020): COVID-19 and the Increase in Household Savings: Precautionary or Forced? ECB Economic Bulletin, No. 6.
Elekes, A. – Halmai, P. (2019): How to Overcome the Crisis of the European Growth Potential? The Role of the Government. European Journal of Comparative Economics, 16(2): 313–334.
European Commission (EC) (2020a): European Economic Forecast Spring 2020. European Economy Institutional Paper, No. 125, DG ECFIN, Brussels.
European Commission (EC) (2020b): European Economic Interim Forecast Summer 2020 .European Economy Institutional Paper, No. 132, DG ECFIN, Brussels.
European Commission (EC) (2020c): The 2021 Ageing Report: Underlying Assumptions & Projection Methodologies .European Economy Institutional Paper, No. 142, DG ECFIN, Brussels.
European Commission (EC) (2021a): The 2021 Ageing Report. Economic & Budgetary Projections for the EU Member States (2019-2070). European Economy Institutional Paper, No.148, DG ECFIN, Brussels.
European Commission (EC) (2021b): European Economic Forecast Spring 2021. European Economy Institutional Paper, No. 149, DG ECFIN, Brussels.
Fatás, A. – Summers, L. H. (2017): The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations. Journal of International Economics, 112: 238–250.
Forsythe, E. – Kakhn, B. L. – Lange, F. – Wiczer, D. (2020): Labor Demand in the Time of COVID-19: Evidence from Vacancy Postings and UI Claims. NBER Working Paper, No. 27061.
Furceri, D. – Ganslmeier, M. – Ostry, J. D. – Yang, N. (2021): Initial Output Losses from the COVID-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants. IMF Working Paper, No. 21/18, January.
Halmai, P. – Vásáry, V. (2010): Growth Crisis in the EU: Challenges and Prospects, Intereconomics. Review of European Economic Policy, 45(5): 329-336.
Halmai, P. – Vásáry, V. (2011): Crisis and Economic Growth in the EU: Medium and Long-Term Trends. Acta Oeconomica, 61(4): 465–485.
Halmai, P. – Vásáry, V. (2012): Convergence Crisis: Economic Crisis and Convergence in the European Union. International Economics and Economic Policy, 9(3): 297–322.
Havik, K. – Mc Morrow, K. – Orlandi, F. – Planas, C. – Raciborski, R. – Röger, W. – Rossi, A. – Thum-Thysen, A. – Vandermeulen, V. (2014): The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps. European Economy Economic Papers, No. 535 November, European Commission DG ECFIN.
- Search Google Scholar
- Export Citation
Havik, K. Mc Morrow, K. Orlandi, F. Planas, C. Raciborski, R. Röger, W. Rossi, A. Thum-Thysen, A. Vandermeulen, V. 2014): The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps. European Economy Economic Papers, No. 535 November European Commission DG ECFIN.
Heimberger, P. (2020): Potential Output, EU Fiscal Surveillance and the COVID-19 Shock. Intereconomics, 55(3): 167–174.
Jordà, O. – Kornejew, M. – Schularick, M. – Taylor, A. M. (2020): Zombies at Large: Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy. CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 15518.
Leduc, S. – Liu, Z. (2016): Uncertainty Shocks Are Aggregate Demand Shocks. Journal of Monetary Economics, 82: 20–35.
Kreko, J. – Oblath, G. (2020): Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the European Union. Acta Oeconomica, 70(3): 297–332.
Pfeiffer, P. – Roeger, W. – in’t Veld, J. (2020): The COVID19-Pandemic in the EU: Macroeconomic Transmission & Economic Policy Response. European Economy Discussion Paper, No. 127, DG ECFIN, Brussels.
World Bank (2020): Global Economic Prospects, June 2020. Washington, DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33748 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
The EU15 countries are divided into three groups. – The Founding States (A6) are the six countries (DE, FR, IT, B, NL, L) that founded the European Economic Community (EEC) in 1958 (Continental European model). – “New” Member States (U6) are the more developed countries that joined the EEC and the EU in 1973 and 1995: the UK and IE, which belong to the Anglo-Saxon model, and DK, FI and SE, which belong to the Nordic model, and finally AT. We have also examined the group of countries net of the UK data under the name of (U5). – Mediterranean Member States (M3), Greece (EL), which joined in 1981, and the Iberian countries (ES and PT), which joined in 1986 (Mediterranean model).
The calculations were based on the panel data of the EPC (Economic Policy Committee) OGWG (Output Gap Working Group) database. The former provides detailed data on potential growth and its factors, including quantity of labour and productivity. Based on these data, a medium-term projection (covering the years 2022-2025) was also made, the results of which are also included in the database. The raw data are grouped, processed and analysed by the author.
For the countries that joined the EU between 2004 and 2007 (EU12, and from the Central and Eastern European region: EU10), data of similar quality are only available from 1995. The EU15 and EU12 together are the EU27, i.e., the Member States before 1 July 2013. These groups of countries will be analysed later in the study. However, the analyses do not include the newest EU member, Croatia (HR) (and thus the EU28). For HR, good quality growth accounting data are available only from 2003 onwards. For the longer period analysed, the EU data also include the UK. However, we have also analysed the groups of countries concerned net of the UK data.
For details on its methodology see Denis et al. (2006); D'Auria et al. (2010); Havik (2014); Elekes – Halmai (2019).
We should note, however, that the contribution of L (labour factor) was positive throughout the period of 1985–2008.
In 2018, tourism made up 11.8% of GDP and 13.5% of employment in Spain, 8.0% and 9.8% in Portugal, 7.4% and 7.5% in France and 6.8% and 10.0% in Greece (OECD 2020).
Job vacancy rate in the EU fell from 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019 to 1.6% in the second quarter of 2020 and has recovered only slowly. For the impacts of the pandemic, see Forsyte et al. (2020).
EU15 Member States without M3 and IT.