Author: T. Zsíros 1
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  • 1 Seismological Observatory, Geodetic and Geophysical Research, Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences H-1112 Budapest, Meredek u. 18, Hungary
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The source parameters and dimensions of the three most important earthquakes (Zsolna - Jan. 15, 1858, Io = VIII EMS; Jóko - Jan. 9, 1906, Io = VIII EMS; Jóko- Jan. 16, 1906, Io = VII-VIII EMS) of the area studied are estimated as follows: Event (Magnitude, Rupture area, Max. Displacement); Jan. 15, 1858 Zsolna (5.5 Ms, 22-36 km2, 8-11 cm); Jan. 9, 1906 Jóko (5.7 MS, 40-55 km2, 12-16 cm); Jan. 16, 1906 Jóko (5.3 MS, 12-24 km2,4-8 cm). The average recurrence that we may expect an earthquake of M = 2.3 every 1 year, an earthquake of M = 3.7 every 10 years and an earthquake of M = 5.1 every 100 years in this source zone. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment predicts 1.2-1.7 m/sec2 peak ground accelerations, and 6.6-7.2 maximum (theoretical) earthquake intensity values with 10% chance of surpassing for an exposure time of 100 years in the area.

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