Authors:
Mónika Lakatos Országos Meteorológiai Szolgálat, Budapest, Magyarország; Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ), Budapest, Hungary

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Zita Bihari Országos Meteorológiai Szolgálat, Budapest, Magyarország; Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ), Budapest, Hungary

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Beatrix Izsák Országos Meteorológiai Szolgálat, Budapest, Magyarország; Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ), Budapest, Hungary

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Olivér Szentes Országos Meteorológiai Szolgálat, Budapest, Magyarország; Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ), Budapest, Hungary

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Összefoglaló. A WMO 2021 elején kiadott állapotértékelője szerint a COVID–19 miatti korlátozások ellenére az üvegházhatású gázok légköri koncentrációja tovább emelkedett. A tengerszint emelkedés a közelmúltban gyorsult, rekordmagas volt a jégvesztés Grönlandon, az Antarktisz olvadása is gyorsulni látszik. Szélsőséges időjárás pusztított, élelmiszer-ellátási gondok léptek fel, és 2020-ban a COVID–19 hatásával együtt nőtt a biztonsági kockázat több régióban is. Az éghajlatváltozás felerősíti a meglévő kockázatokat, és újabb kockázatok is fellépnek majd a természeti és az ember által alkotott rendszerekben.

Az éghajlatváltozás hatása a hazai mérési sorokban is megjelenik. Az Országos Meteorológiai Szolgálat (OMSZ) homogenizált, ellenőrzött mérései szerint 1901 óta 1,2 °C-ot nőtt az évi középhőmérséklet. Két normál időszakot vizsgálva egyértelmű a magasabb hőmérsékletek felé tolódás, a csapadék éven belüli eloszlása megváltozott, az őszi másodmaximum eltűnőben van. Nőtt az aszályhajlam, gyakoribbá váltak a hőhullámok, intenzívebb a csapadékhullás, emiatt az éghajlatvédelemi intézkedések mellett a jól megalapozott alkalmazkodás is indokolt. A biztonsági kockázatok csökkenthetők az OMSZ és Országos Katasztrófavédelmi Főigazgatóság közötti együttműködés által.

Summary. The first part of the article gives an overview of the state of the global climate in 2020 based on the report compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO, 2021) and network of partners from UN. According to this report, the 2020 was one of the three warmest years on record, despite a cooling La Niña event. The global mean temperature for 2020 (January to October) was 1.2 ± 0.1 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, used as an approximation of pre-industrial levels. The latest six years have been the warmest on record. 2011-2020 was the warmest decade on record. The report on the “State of the Global Climate 2020” illustrates the state of the key indicators of the climate system, including greenhouse gas concentrations, increasing land and ocean temperatures, sea level rise, melting ice and glacier and extreme weather. It also highlights impacts on socio-economic development, migration and displacement and food security. All key climate indicators and associated impact information published in this report highlight continuing climate change, an increasing occurrence and intensification of extreme events, and severe losses and damage, affecting people, societies and economies. Extreme weather events triggered an estimated 10 000 000 displacements in 2020. Because of COVID-19 lockdowns, response and recovery operations were leading to delays in providing assistance. After decades of decline, the increase in food insecurity since 2014 is being driven by conflict and economic slowdown as well as climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change will amplify existing risks and create new risks for natural and human systems. Risks are unevenly distributed and are generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities in countries at all levels of development.

The global changes have local effects in Hungary as it is shown in the second part of the article. The climate monitoring at the Hungarian Meteorological Service is based on measurements stored in the Climate data archive. We apply data management tools to produce high quality and representative datasets to prepare climate studies. The data homogenization makes possible to eliminate inhomogeneities due to change in the measuring practice and station movements. Applying spatial interpolation procedure for meteorological data provide the spatial representativeness of the climate data used for monitoring. The surface temperature increase is slightly higher in Hungary than the global change from 1901. The annual precipitation decreased by 3% from 1901, although this change is not significant statistically. The monthly temperatures shifted to warmer monthly averages in the most recent normal period between 1991 and 2020 comparing to the 1961–1990 in each months. The annual course of the monthly precipitations changed, especially autumn. The monthly sum in September and in October increased substantially. The frequency of heatwave days increased by more than two weeks in the Little Plain and in the southern part of the Great Hungarian Plain from 1981, which is the most intense warming period globally. The intensification of the precipitation in the recent years is obvious in our region. The cooperation of the Disaster Risk Management and the Hungarian Meteorological Service could expand the adaptive capacity of the society to climate change.

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    Izsák, B., & Szentimrey, T. (2020) To what extent does the detection of climate change in Hungary depend on the choice of statistical methods? Int J Geomath, Vol. 11. No. 17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13137-020-00159-7

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    Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A., Winn, J. P., Hogan, E., Killick, R. E., Dunn, R. J. H., Osborn, T. J., Jones, P. D., & Simpson, I. R. (2021) An updated assessment of near-surface temperature change from 1850: the HadCRUT5 dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 126. No. 3. .

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    FAO (2020) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2020: The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020. Transforming food systems for affordable healthy diets, http://www.fao.org/3/ca9692en/online/ca9692en.html

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    NÉS2 (2018) A második Nemzeti Éghajlatváltozási Stratégia. https://nakfo.mbfsz.gov.hu/sites/default/files/files/N%C3%89S_Ogy%20%C3%A1ltal%20elfogadott.PDF

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  • Zoltán BIRKNER (University of Pannonia)
  • Valéria CSÉPE (Research Centre for Natural Sciences, Brain Imaging Centre)
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  • Gábor KOVÁCS (University of Public Service)
  • Levente KOVÁCS buda University)
  • Melinda KOVÁCS (Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences (MATE))
  • Miklós MARÓTH (Avicenna Institue of Middle Eastern Studies )
  • Judit MÓGOR (Ministry of Interior National Directorate General for Disaster Management)
  • József PALLO (University of Public Service)
  • István SABJANICS (Ministry of Interior)
  • Péter SZABÓ (Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences (MATE))
  • Miklós SZÓCSKA (Semmelweis University)

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