Éva Hideg Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem Budapest Magyarország; Corvinus University of Budapest Budapest Hungary

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Összefoglalás. A tanulmány a világmodellezés 50 évéről ad áttekintést a legismertebb és módszertanilag újítást hozó világmodellek rövid ismertetésén keresztül. A világmodellezés fogalmának meghatározása után sorra veszi a Római Klub és az ENSZ szervezeteiben folyó világmodellezést és a jelentős modelleket, majd pedig az online világmodellezés néhány műhelyében folyó munkákat. A bemutatott világmodellek összehasonlító elemzésével rámutat azokra az új modellezési módszertanokra és fordulópontokra, amelyek új utakat nyitottak a világmodellek készítésében és hasznosításában. A folyamatos megújulás jellemzőit a világmodellezők felfogásában és képzettségében, a világmodellezés eljárásaiban, valamint a világmodelleket ismerők és használók körében bekövetkezett változások vonatkozásában fogalmazza meg.

Summary. The aim of paper is to introduce the last 50 years of world modelling through short presentation of world models that have got reputation of wide range in the world and have represented methodological innovation in the history of world modelling. For this purpose after giving definition of world modelling the paper takes one by one the world modelling activities carried out in the frame of the Club of Rome and of different organizations of UN and their most important products and the works running by some organizations of online and interactive world model building as well. Forrester-Meadows’s system dynamics model recognizing the natural resources and Ervin Laszlo’s verbal world model considering the inner human limits, and GEO models and IPCC reports that were initiated by the UN organizations and that define the sustainability and place it in the centre of world model building and the organizations of online world model building as Millennium project, JAVA Climate Model, Pardee Center for International Futures and Futures Platform are payed special attention. These world models have defined the characteristics of complex world problems rooting in both natural and human/social limits. They show how the world is running into the catastrophe in the future if the humanity does not reflect to these limits at both the individual and community levels and finally they have got to give definition of requirements concerning sustainability and tasks needed to materialize them, and to the necessity of shift in world views and social values.

The study draws attention to the methodological issues of world modelling came to the front of research topics at the beginning of 21st century especially to the fact why and in what ways the idea concerning the paradigm shift in the world modelling have become the main methodological problem. In what ways the online and interactive world modelling can stimulate that every person and community to be able to explore and/or construct their own world model and recognize that everybody has to do something and to change its behaviour for survival of the human civilization.

The paper emphasizes methodological solutions and turning points that has opened new ways in the process of world modelling and the application of their outcomes by the way of comparative analysis of world models and changing ideas focusing on paradigm shift. In the end the main characteristics of continuous renewal are shaped by the emphasis of the changes happened in the ideas of world views and qualification of world modellers, in the methodology of word model building and in the circle of users and participants and people who becomes acquainted with world models or world model building.

  • 1

    Dixson-Declève, S. (2021) A New European Social-Economic Paradigm.

  • 2

    Anchoring Transformation: Policy Anchors for Ensuring a New European Social-Economic Paradigm. Volume 2 Europe: The Club of Rome Economic Recovery, Renewal & Resiliense Series. [Letöltve: 2021. 10. 25.]

  • 3

    Futures Platform. [Letöltve: 2021. 09. 15.]

  • 4

    Herrington, G. (2021) Update to Limits to Growth: Comparing the World3 Model with Empirical data. Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 25. No. 3. pp. 614–626.

  • 5

    Java Climate Model honlapja: [Letöltve: 2021. 09. 12.]

  • 6

    IPCC honlapja: [Letöltve: 2022. 06. 13.]

  • 7

    IPCC (2007) AR4 Climate Change. Synthesis Report. [Letöltve: 2020. 08. 15.]

  • 8

    Kahn, H. (1976):The Next Two Hundred Years: A Scenario for America and the World. New York: Macmillan

  • 9

    Kahn, H., Wiener, A. (1967) The Year 2000 : A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-three Years. New York: Macmillan

  • 10

    Laszlo, E. (ed.) (1977) Goals for Mankind. A Report to the Club of Rome. New York: E.P. Dutton & Co Inc.

  • 11

    Meadows, D. (2020) Limits to Growth and the COVID-19 Epidemic. [Letöltve: 2022. 04. 11.]

  • 12

    Meadows, D., Randers, J. & Behrens, W. (1972) The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York, Universe Books

  • 13

    Meadows, D., Richardson, J. & Bruckmann, G. (1982) Groping in the Dark: The First Decade of Global Modelling. New York, John Wiley & Sons

  • 14

    Millennium Project honlapja: [Letöltve: 2021. 12. 14.]

  • 15

    Our Common Future (1987) World Commission on Environment and Development. Oxford, Oxford Press

  • 16

    Pardee Center For International Futures honlapja. [Letöltve: 2021. 09. 05.]

  • 17

    Retek M. (2011) A globális éghajlatváltozás interaktív és komplex forgatókönyveinek modellezése és elemzése. Budapest, Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem

  • 18

    Római Klub honlapja: [Letöltve: 2022. 05. 05.]

  • 19

    Spengler, J. (1966) The Economist and the Population Question. American Economic Review, Vol. 56. No. 1–2. pp. 1–24.

  • 20

    UN Environment (1997) GEO-1: For Life on Earth. Oxford, Oxford University Press.

  • 21 [Letöltve: 2010. 06. 10.]

  • 22

    Un Environment (1999) Overview GEO-2000. UNEP, Nairobi. [Letöltve: 2018. 05. 13.]

  • 23

    UN Environment (2002) GEO-3: Past, Present and Future Perspectives. UNEP Earthscan Publications Ltd London, Sterling, VA. [Letöltve: 2020. 09. 10.]

  • 24

    UN Environment (2007) GEO-4: Environment for Development. UNEP. Valletta, Progress Press. [Letöltve: 2021. 09. 15.]

  • 25

    UN Environment (2012) GEO-5: Environment for the Future We Want. UNEP, Progress Press, Valletta. [Letöltve: 2018. 06. 13.]

  • 26

    UN Environment (2019) GEO-6: Healthy Planet, Healthy People. UNEP. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. [Letöltve: 2018. 06. 13.]

  • 27

    Vester, F. (2007) The Art of Interconnected Thinking: Tools and Concepts for a New Approach to Tackling Complexity. Munich: MCB (Management, Cybernetics, Bionics) Verlag

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  • Tamás NÉMETH 
    (Institute for Soil Sciences and Agricultural Chemistry, Centre for Agricultural Research
    Budapest, Hungary)

Managing Editor:

  • István SABJANICS (Ministry of Interior, Budapest, Hungary)

Editorial Board:

  • Valéria CSÉPE (Research Centre for Natural Sciences, Brain Imaging Centre)
  • János JÓZSA (Budapest University of Technology and Economics)
  • Melinda KOVÁCS (Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences (MATE))
  • Miklós MARÓTH (Eötvös Loránd Research Network)
  • Charaf HASSAN (Budapest University of Technology and Economics)
  • Zoltán GYŐRI (Hungaricum Committee)
  • József HALLER (University of Public Service)
  • Attila ASZÓDI (Budapest University of Technology and Economics)
  • Zoltán BIRKNER (National Research, Development and Innovation Office)
  • Tamás DEZSŐ (Migration Research Institute)
  • Imre DOBÁK (University of Public Service)
  • András KOLTAY (National Media and Infocommunications Authority)
  • Gábor KOVÁCS (University of Public Service)
  • József PALLO (University of Public Service)
  • Marcell Gyula GÁSPÁR (University of Miskolc)
  • Judit MÓGOR (Ministry of Interior National Directorate General for Disaster Management)
  • István SABJANICS (Ministry of Interior)
  • Péter SZABÓ (Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences (MATE))
  • Miklós SZÓCSKA (Semmelweis University)

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Scientia et Securitas
Language Hungarian
Size A4
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Founder Academic Council of Home Affairs and
Association of Hungarian PhD and DLA Candidates
H-2090 Remeteszőlős, Hungary, Nagykovácsi út 3.
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Publisher Akadémiai Kiadó
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ISSN ISSN 2732-2688

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