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  • 1 Department of Economic Policy, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary
  • 2 Department of Macroeconomics, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary
  • 3 Department of Operations Research and Actuarial Sciences, Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary
Open access

The sustainability of an unfunded pension system depends highly on demographic and labour market trends, i.e. how fertility, mortality, and employment rates change. In this paper we provide a brief summary of recent developments in these fields in Hungary and draw up a picture of the current situation. Then, we forecast the path of the economic old-age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of the elderly and employed populations. We make different alternative assumptions about fertility, mortality, and employment rates. According to our baseline scenario the dependency ratio is expected to rise from 40.6% to 77% by 2050. Such a sharp increase makes policy intervention inevitable. Based on our sensitivity analysis, the only viable remedy is increasing the retirement age.

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