Sampling strategy, data gathering

In Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia, the agricultural land in use is the following: 3,530 (Czech Statistical Office, 2021), 4,922 (Hungarian Statistical Office, 2021), 10,742 (Polish Statistical Office, 2020), and 1,910 (Slovakian Statistical Office, 2020) thousand hectares, representing 44.76%, 53.91%, 33.30%, and 38.95% of the country areas, respectively. According to the Environmental Stratification of Europe (Metzger et al., 2005), Hungary represents the Pannonian, Slovakia, and Poland represent the continental, while the Czech Republic has regions of both environmental zones.

The study was carried out in six agricultural universities in Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, and Poland, the University of Debrecen Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences and Environment formerly the agricultural university covering agricultural higher education of East Hungary, the Slovak University of Agriculture in Nitra with over 12 thousand students, the Czech University of Life Sciences originally founded as an agricultural university now with cca. 20 thousand students, and the University of Agriculture in Krakow, the largest agricultural university in Poland (Fig. 1), at the time of the survey.

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East Central European cities of agricultural universities taking part in the survey are indicated red in the map

Citation: Progress in Agricultural Engineering Sciences 20, 1; 10.1556/446.2024.00141

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University students were recruited from bachelor and master courses related to agriculture, each completed last year before graduation. This focus group, including future agricultural experts, will potentially have the most critical influence on their countries' practical responses to climate change. The survey was administered over the Internet using the same questionnaire. Here we note that respondents were asked in their national language instead of English: the questionnaire was translated into each native language by university professors. The representativeness was between 20% and 90% by course. It must be noted, however, that the number of graduating students by courses and levels varied in a wide range. The numbers of respondents by country, subject, and course levels are summarized in Fig. 2.

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Numbers of respondents taking part in the survey concerning agriculture-related graduates' knowledge and attitude toward climate change, by countries and subjects of courses

¹ Agricultural engineering, horticultural engineering, wildlife management engineering

² Plant protection engineering, horticultural engineering, agricultural water management engineering

³ Rural development engineering

⁴ Landscape architecture, landscape engineering, landscape consolidation and GIS, horticulture, environmental management, nutrition and society

⁵ Landscape engineering, horticulture

^6,7 Regional development and EU policies, rural development and rural tourism

⁸ Agricultural engineering, landscape management and soil protection, landscape and natural resources management, forestry, horticulture, crop production, animal breeding, horse breeding, aquaculture, agroecology, applied ecology, agrobiology, food quality and processing agricultural products

⁹ Agricultural engineering, animal nutrition, phytotechnologies, crop production, agroecology

¹⁰ Agro-business, rural development, regional development, public administration in agriculture

¹¹ Agro-business, rural development, regional development

¹² Biotechnology, hydrology and water management, environmental engineering, landscape architecture, agronomy and agro-business

¹³ Agriculture, hydrology and water management, water management, hydrology, environmental engineering, hydrology

Citation: Progress in Agricultural Engineering Sciences 20, 1; 10.1556/446.2024.00141

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The professional questions aimed to collect country-specific data about the level of knowledge of young agricultural candidates in the V4 region of Europe. Answers were evaluated relative to that of the authors as university professors regarding the linguistic part. They reviewed statements to eliminate both redundancy and lack of relevant aspects. The questionnaire was pre-tested by 10 students from each university. Based on a thorough preliminary review, country-specific facts, issues, and professional alternatives of solutions in agriculture related to climate change were assumed to be adequately incorporated into the curricula of the selected courses (Websites of the Universities, 2022). Answers were evaluated with the consideration of country-specific facts and future projections. Blocks of questions and statements evaluated by the final-grade students are summarized in Table 1.

Statistical methods for testing and evaluating survey questions

The comparative analyses aimed to describe the knowledge of the final grade students on climatic and related agricultural facts and predicted issues specific to their country and to get an insight into their attitude towards the particular challenges expected in their country. V4 region cannot be considered homogenous in any of the agro-environmental aspects in focus, i.e., young agricultural experts are expected to face different concerns with different sets of efficient solutions. Regional variances and contrasts in the environmental conditions and the expected future trends were analysed considering the country-specific findings. Differences in the responses were analysed using the Chi-square (χ²) statistic, where the variables were measured at a nominal level. The study's sample sizes were unequal, ranging between 63 and 108 (Fig. 2). Where relevant, differences between universities within the same country were neglected; national higher education laws and policies are applied in each country. Bachelor and master courses were not differentiated except for questions Q6–Q8 regarding subject evaluation. The study's primary aim was not to assess the quality of education at different levels of higher education but to have a detailed overview of the preparedness of agricultural experts entering the labour market with a new university degree. Recommendations regarding the level and/or aspect of the need for incorporation of climate-related agricultural issues and solutions into the curricula were given accordingly.

Discrete choice analysis

The issues shown in Equation (7) were identified by the professors with relevant expertise working for the universities involved. The number of decision situations that could be formed from the problems and their levels was considered too large when using a full factorial design type, so a fractional factorial design was used. We used a D-efficient experimental design using Ngene 1.2 (Rose and Bliemer, 2009; Choicemetrics, 2018). It included 12 decision situations, each including four scenarios. In many cases, blocking was used, with only a subset (six problems) being presented to our respondents. Respondents were asked to choose one of the four scenarios which they considered most realistic. An example of a decision situation is shown in Table 2.

Knowledge of the expert candidates in the agricultural sector in the V4 countries regarding climate change

Carbon footprint is a commonly used term in the context of human contribution to climate change. Considering its extent by the European Union citizens, three times more Czech and Polish students gave good answers suggesting more realistic ideas compared to the Hungarian and Slovakian respondents. Regarding the need to decrease carbon footprint, opinions collected from the countries as part of the survey showed the same order but with less difference (Table 3). Hungarian and Polish students felt somewhat confident in their knowledge of the reasons, consequences and measures concerning climate change. One-third of the Czech and Slovakian students declared to have generally good knowledge; however, the answers given by the latter showed more platykurtic distribution; more than one-third thought they needed to learn more (Table 3). Hungarian respondents were found to be the most optimistic regarding humans' ability to handle climate change efficiently (40%). In contrast, the majority of Czech students (61%) believe that the negative trends can be at least slowed. More than half of the Polish and Slovakian respondents had the same opinion (52% and 54%, respectively) (Table 3).

Young agricultural engineers need to have strong professional knowledge of climate change's most probable adverse effects on weather conditions. As reported by (Ceglar et al., 2019), the major part of Europe will be affected by further northward climate zone migration. Approximately half of Hungary, two-thirds of Poland, one-third of Slovakia, and one-third of the Czech Republic were classified as regions with relatively low and increasing potential yield in the period of 2000–2050. However, the regional agro-environmental conditions are different and should be addressed appropriately. In the V4 countries, 70–84% of the students consider the shift in climate zones already present or expected in the short term (Table 4). Regarding the increasing frequency of floods in the V4 region, most respondents were of similar opinion (69–92%) regardless of the country. 66% of Hungarians and more than 73% of Polish considered it already present or expected in the short term. A significant portion of Hungary is on protected floodplain, thus the flood risk is considerable, however, flood protection infrastructure and management are efficient. In contrary, in the Czech Republic, floods in 1997, 2002, 2006, and 2013 have caused serious crises. In Slovakia, between 1996 and 2002, 80 major damaging floods occurred. Similarly, wetlands were considered vulnerable currently or in the near future by the former three groups (75–87%), while 26% in Poland thought it was not probable. As a comparison, 0.9–2.5% of the respondents in the other three countries chose the same answer. The increasing frequency of heat waves was considered an already existing or near-future issue in the region by all in ≥90%. Over one-third of Hungarians and Czechs felt the increase in the frequency of tornadoes was not probable in the V4 region; on the contrary, more than 40% of Polish students believe it is already present. Regarding the possibility of increasing temporal water cover in arable lands, Hungarians were the most sensitive; 90% said it was confirmed. The vulnerability of water resources regarding their shortage was considered existing by approximately half of the Polish and the Czech students; adding short-term expectations, close to 90% of the students gave a positive answer. On the contrary, while one-third of the Hungarian and Slovakian respondents considered the problem verified, 23% of both groups expected it only in the long-term showing a wide range in distribution. An increase in the frequency of forest fires was considered existing by the Polish in 64% and 95% when the answer of short-term relevance was added. Responses of the three other groups were similarly dispersed. It is essential to highlight that the subject of the questions was the same, the East Central European region.

When respondents were asked about the country-specific relevance that they would face as professionals after graduation, shifts in climate zones were considered existing or expected in the short term by the same percentage (65–84%); however, the ratio of substantial and short-term effect was systematically lower in each country (Table 4). Based on statistical analysis, the migration of agro-climatic zones in Eastern Europe may reach twice the velocity in the next decades as observed from 1975 to 2016 (Ceglar et al., 2019). Threat of floods only in the long term was expected systematically lower at the country scale compared to the results given for the V4 region. In Poland and Slovakia, 27% and 23% of the respondents expected country-specific flood issues only in the long-term or not at all, which are 8% and 15% for East Central Europe, respectively. Considering the facts, in the Czech Republic, floods in 1997, 2002, 2006, and 2013 caused serious crises; in Slovakia, between 1996 and 2002, 80 major damaging floods occurred. Wetland vulnerability as well as increasing frequency of heat waves by country was also considered systematically lower; distribution by answers remained similar in each country compared to the solutions for V4. More students in each country expected a lower risk of tornadoes in their country. Students did not expect a country-specific deviation from what was scheduled for the V4 region concerning the increasing occurrence of temporary water cover in arable lands. The quantity of surface water in the Carpathian basin decreases, resulting from increased storage capacity in the neighbouring upstream countries, while increasing evapotranspiration and fluctuation in precipitation further aid vulnerability. The pattern regarding the quantitative vulnerability of water resources was similar for each country compared to what was expected at the regional scale. Lastly, forest fires were considered a less definite problem in Hungary and Poland, while higher in the other countries than in the V4 region.

In Hungary and the Czech Republic, the annual mean temperature increased, while precipitation did not within the last decades, resulting in decreased moisture certainty, suggesting an increase of potential evapotranspiration and, thus, higher susceptibility of agricultural areas to drought. On the contrary, the average atmospheric precipitation has decreased in Slovakia. In the Carpathian basin, the fluctuation of rainfall in time increases, and extremes are spatially and temporarily uneven. A clear idea is required about the most critical weather events that engineers in the agricultural sector should be able to handle. Most students in all the V4 countries consider the direct effects of the change in annual mean temperature in their country already present or expected in the short term (64–73% and 18–30%, respectively) (Table 5). Regarding the change in annual mean precipitation, independently from the country, half of the respondents believe that immediate responses should be given in agriculture, and an additional 29–37% think that solutions will be necessary, at least soon. In the vegetation period, the problem is considered systematically more acute; answers of already present or expected in the short term represent 88–97%. Among the extreme events of potentially increasing frequency, the absolute risk of the direct effect of the increase in the number of sweltering days (>35 °C) compared to that of hot (>30 °C) days is systematically considered lower. Long-term effects or no relevance of scorching days were believed by 16, 23, 30, and 32% of the Hungarian, Polish, Slovakian, and Czech students, respectively. Hot days as a direct source of risk in agriculture are considered already existing by most students, i.e., half of the Slovakians, two-thirds of the Hungarians, and the other two groups in between. An increase in the frequency of frozen days (<0 °C) in the given countries was considered to occur as a direct effect of climate change differently by the respondents by country. According to a recent study (Vanschoenwinkel et al., 2016), Eastern Europe has a lower adaptive capacity than Western Europe. However, if Eastern Europe considers the same adaptation options, it could attenuate the decrease in land value or even benefit from climate change, depending on the climate scenario (Table 6).

Respondents' attitude towards the environmental effects of climate change – results of the discrete choice analysis

The increase in annual mean temperature is a relevant issue for respondents concerning climate change (Table 7). In addition, the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events and the increase in annual precipitation are also perceived as existing problems. The only exception is the reduction in utilizable water resources, and respondents consider it to be a problem for the future. In the LC model estimation, we tested several scenarios to find the most optimal class number model. Our decision was based on the values of the information criteria shown in Table 8. The BIC value already increased in the three-class case, indicating a worse model fit, so for further analysis, we chose the two-class specification. Table 9 estimates show that Slovak students are significantly less likely to be in the LC model's first class than Hungarians in the second class. For the first group, significant parameter estimates were obtained for all the problems studied. This suggests substantial differences between the actuality levels (not probable in the future, expected in the future, already present). The increase in the annual precipitation and the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events are perceived as essential.

In contrast, the increase in the mean annual temperature and the decrease in utilizable water resources are perceived as future issues to address. Like the respondents in the first group, the increase in the frequency of extreme weather events is a current problem for the members of the second group. In addition, the increase in the mean annual temperatures is already perceived as a current problem by the respondents in this class. Respondents in the second group do not consider an increase in annual precipitation in the future to be likely (compared to the “expected in the future” scenario). Like respondents in the first group, they consider the reduction in utilizable water resources to be a future problem.

Respondents' knowledge of the effects of climate change on crop production safety

Climate change is projected to increase the potentially attainable yields of the currently-grown crops in the rest of the area of Slovakia, Poland, and the Czech Republic, classified as having relatively high and increasing potential yield. In contrast, Hungary is expected to have half of its area affected by an adverse change in the potential yield of the current crop mix (Debonne et al., 2022). Regarding the indirect effects of climate change on crop production in case of no measure, the need for changing plant species repertoire was considered dominantly already present or short-term in each country (75–85%), with the highest sensitivity of Poland (Table 10). Similar expectations for yield depression due to drought were expressed, but even with higher severity. Freeze, as a cause of lower yield, was considered critical by 75% of the Hungarian respondents.

In comparison, 26% of Czech university students think it would only become an issue in their country in the long term, while 36% believe it is already real. The contribution of pests to yield decrease was considered already present by 55% of the Hungarians and 40–41% of the respondents in the other three countries, but the sum of the ratios of the answers already present and short-term was consistently high, 75–91%. More than half of the Hungarians considered yield decrease due to temporal water covers a fundamental problem. In contrast, in the Czech Republic, it was expected only in the long-term by 32%. In Slovakia and the Czech Republic, answers showed a wide distribution between existing and not probable.

Regarding soil quality, adverse changes in salinity, acidity, or alkalinity were considered genuine by half of the Hungarian respondents as the highest. Though the range of giving answers, already present or short-term, was 64–80%, one-third of the Slovakian, one-fourth of the Czech, and approximately one-sixth of both the Hungarian and the Polish students expected the problem only in the long term. Students in each country consider worsening structural conditions of soil actual or relevant soon (80–89%). Thought in Slovakia, close to 45% of students expect it instead in the short term, and even one-fifth believe the issue arises only in a long time. Similar ratios were found regarding the actuality or short-term expectation of the compaction of the soil. One-third of the Slovakian respondents chose whether it was becoming long-term or not probable in the future. Climate change was expected to have a considerable adverse effect on the loss of nutrients in the soil already existing or occurring in the short term by 72–89% of the respondents in their countries. According to European statistical data (Eurostat, 2021), the Czech Republic is among the countries with a high input of mineral nitrogen fertilizers (4th in the EU), with the 2nd highest share of mineral nitrogen in the total nitrogen input and a high positive nitrogen balance (6th in the EU).

On the contrary, in Hungary, the fertilization level is low, and the nitrogen surplus is among the lowest in the EU. Based on the answers to questions D7–D9, soil degradation is considered or expected to be a relatively less critical issue that young agricultural engineers would face in Slovakia. More than half of the respondents regarded water and wind erosion as a real problem in the Czech Republic.

Respondents' opinion on the level of knowledge transfer at the agricultural universities

In the four countries, crop production and horticulture losses do not necessarily result from inadequate knowledge of the agricultural professionals but the lack of access to adequate tools, where solutions below a given field area are currently not economically feasible. Students evaluated their knowledge about climate change gained during their studies. The majority of all respondents in the V4 region reported that linguistic aspects were built into the subjects of the courses to some extent (Tables 11 and 12). Ratios were 54–67% and 56–69% at BSc and MSc levels, respectively. Patterns by country were the same for both education groups; graduates in Hungary felt to get detailed knowledge with the highest ratio. At the BSc level, one-third of Polish and Slovakian respondents reported that the lexical aspect was not focused on during their studies. It was found lower at the MSc level, representing 26% and 19%, respectively. 39% of the Slovakian BSc students believed that tools and techniques (i.e., measures, actions, management, technologies, research, etc.) related to climate change were not built into the subjects, though one-fifth reported the opposite. 38% reported high focus at the MSc level, while 25% was low. In the other three countries, the ratios were quite comparable in the two education groups with the dominance of the answer “to some extent”; Czech respondents represented the highest ratio at both levels. Polish students represented the lowest ratio regarding detailed discussion of climate change in all relevant subjects. Considering the sum of the answers “not really in focus” and “to some extent”, 74%, 81%, 84%, and 95% of the Czech, Slovakian, Hungarian, and Polish students at the BSc level were represented, respectively. At the MSc level, 79%, 75%, 91%, and 95% gave one of these answers, respectively. Results did not reveal considerable differences by course level.

Based on the results, the country-specific relevance of the different environmental aspects is widely believed accurate at the V4 level. E.g., the shift in climate zones is discussed at the country scale, and students probably project their knowledge in general. This is likely a subjective extension based on objective knowledge. Regarding flood risk, respondents expose their expertise on local hydrography to the V4 level at all universities, too. E.g., in Hungary, the river regulation program was completed by the beginning of the last century; hence flood risk is negligible. Students are familiar with it; news in the media regularly informs about natural disasters but in far regions of the world. The vulnerability of wetlands is of public interest, where the media has a considerable role. Students show sensitivity to the protection of natural resources. Many types of weather extremes are experienced in the region, but specific ones by countries. Heat waves and temporary water cover of arable lands are discussed in many aspects; lecturers continuously update the related teaching materials. Underground water resources are quite different in quantity and availability for use, and a lack of detailed knowledge of the geography and hydrogeology of the V4 region as a whole result in local to regional scale projection. Forest fires in South Europe are reported in the media in the summer, sensitizing V4 students.

Respondents' attitude towards the protection alternatives against the harmful effects of climate change in crop production

Adequate prevention or protection measures are needed to handle weather anomalies that can efficiently decrease crop yield. They can be different by regions within East Central Europe. Ideally, students should give coherent answers (E1–E12) for the dominant adverse changes in weather conditions (D2–D4). Intensified irrigation was prioritized by 32%, 51%, 57%, and 65% of the Czech, Slovakian, Hungarian, and Polish respondents, respectively (Table 13). The application of ice net to protect fruit trees was chosen as relevant by most Hungarians and approximately three-fourths of Slovakians, while slightly higher than half of the Czech and Polish students. It may be noted that in the Czech Republic, orchards and vineyards occupy a relatively small area of agricultural land. The introduction of species tolerating freeze better was considered necessary by 54–64%, with the highest ratio in Hungary. Drought-tolerant species to prevent high yield variation by years were chosen as an essential option by nearly 60% of Slovakian students, while considerably higher (78–81%) of the rest. The application of species more resistant to pests was considered relevant by 72% of the Hungarians, while around half of the students were in the other three countries. Integrated pest management as a tool was chosen according to the same pattern. There were no changes in the crop repertoire in the four countries in the last three decades. There is no sign of adaptation to the effects of climate change, e.g., by increasing the diversity of crops, fulfilling the site-specific agroecological potential, considering flexible sowing dates, and/or preferring local varieties. Further simplification of the crop repertoire was thought not to be an adequate response to climate change by the majority (80–88%), except the Czech respondents (39%). The highest ratio for the relevance of the (re)introduction of local varieties was found in Slovakia (48%), while the lowest was in the Czech Republic (4%). Both the extensive and the intensive crop production as efficient protection measures were chosen as least relevant in Poland (3% and 18%, respectively), while having some relevance in Hungary (19% and 38%) and Slovakia (14–14%). Close to 60% of Czech students thought of considerable potential in comprehensive technologies. Adjusting the sowing date to the weather conditions was considered irrelevant by 94% in the Czech Republic, while only 48% in Hungary as the maximum and the minimum by ratio. Except for the 29% Czech respondents, all students (98–100%) prepare for the need for changing technologies to keep high crop yields.

Based on the reflection for the F1 statement (Table 14), all students (98–100%) rate drought as an issue in their country. New drought-resistant species and compacting with a roller after shallow stubble cultivation, however, are not considered an efficient option at all in the Czech Republic, but more balanced nutrition (70%), elimination of soil compaction (79%), using crops with deep root zone (highest, 72%), and alternating cultivation depth (65%), all with the highest ratio among the countries (Table 14). Drought-tolerant varieties may have been thought to have priority instead. Interestingly, only 16%, one-fourth of the respondents in the other countries, chose irrigation. In Poland, the highest relevance among the options was the introduction of drought-resistant species, irrigation, applying crop rotation, and improving soil structure (81% is the highest among the countries, 77%, and 60% that is comparable to the Czech and Slovakian ratios, and 59%, respectively), and compacting with a roller after shallow stubble cultivation was chosen by simple. In Slovakia, 73% chose irrigation, and 66% chose soil structure improvement as an efficient option against drought, while 59–59% found the use of drought-resistant species and applying crop rotation relevant. In Hungary, improving soil structure, irrigation, and introducing new drought-resistant species were selected in the highest ratio, 80% (highest among the countries), 77%, and 70%, respectively. In this country, developing irrigation capacities has limitations; political negotiation started about a decade ago but still has no implementation. In the V4 countries, similar proportions chosen as irrelevant were found for regular deep loosening (64–77%) and direct seeding (80–95%). Mellowing after primary cultivation was also considered insufficient by the majority in Poland and Slovakia (87% and 85%, respectively), while in Hungary and the Czech Republic, 43–43% were considered relevant. Mulching was preferred by 35–42% of the Polish, Slovakian, and Hungarian students, while 12% of the Czechs.

Respondents' preferences in information transfer and their attitude toward individual actions

The range of media tools used by the generation of age 20–25 years can be expected to be similar in European countries, in general. In this survey, differences and/or similarities in the preference of the sources among the graduates to gain relevant, up-to-date information about agriculture-related climate change issues, mitigation, and adaptation was studied. The majority of Hungarian respondents read printed professional papers (61%), while in the other three countries, it is 44–50% (Table 15). 44% of Czech students visit online professional websites, while only 11–15% of the Polish and Hungarians do. Radio and television are preferred sources in Poland and Hungary (75% and 62%, respectively), while only 17% of the Czech students chose them. 67% of the Hungarians, while approximately half of the students from other countries find competent bodies and organizations useful for asking professional questions. The lowest interest in the national agricultural chamber was found in the case of the Hungarian respondents (36%), while in the other countries, 57–61% of students gave a positive answer. Consultants have priority in Slovakia (89%). Exhibitions and fairs are engaging in the same ratio for all students in the region (70–75%). Based on the responses, educational institutes play an essential role in the Czech Republic as the highest. Contrary to the others, Czechs would not necessarily consider the experiences of other farmers nearby, while 72–76% would work in the other three countries. Only 48% of the Slovakian students think senior farmers are worth asking. The ratios in the different countries were found to be 68–80%. However, integrators and distributors are highly preferred in Slovakia. Facebook has the lowest role in Hungary while the highest in Slovakia (61% and 88%, respectively). Finally, most students would use blogs to share professional experiences (83–93%).

Transportation has a considerable contribution to climate change. On the other hand, time and comfort are prioritized in everyday life. Interestingly, students in all the V4 countries showed high sensitivity towards the environment's vulnerability and its relation to transport options (Table 16). 88% of the Czechs, while 60% of the Hungarians are the lowest, think of responsibility when traveling. Respondents were invited to play a situation when they would be leading an economically prosperous company, where the environmental protection regulations are fully applied. It was asked whether they would consider further actions to make the company “greener,” i.e., to reach higher environmental performance, not necessarily resulting in direct extra financial income. The results reflected their increased responsibility, 84–96% of the students would make an extra effort towards environmentally sustainable agriculture (Table 16).